Perspecticast ep.4: Two Whatevers of Trump 2.0

Trump 2.0: The Two Whatevers

1. Whatever the US does is constrained by debt interest payments.

   • The growing burden of servicing national debt limits fiscal flexibility. This means any policy decisions will be heavily influenced by financial constraints, including rising interest rates and ballooning liabilities.

2. Whatever the US does must weaken the USD and lead to higher inflation amid lower rates.

   • A weaker dollar and inflation are part of the necessary adjustments to manage the economic exit strategy. Lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper, but they also contribute to inflationary pressures, which could soften the blow of these transitions.

Xi in 2025: The Two Whatevers

1. Whatever China does, its biggest undeveloped resource is its domestic market.

   • China’s future growth lies in tapping into its vast internal consumer base. Efforts to stimulate domestic consumption and reduce reliance on exports will be key to its economic evolution.

2. Whatever China does, all paths lead to stimulus.

   • Economic growth will require increased government spending and targeted stimulus efforts. This could include infrastructure investments, incentives for innovation, and measures to boost consumer spending.

The Intersection

At the intersection of these strategies, we see:

• China’s currency rising and its trade surplus falling.

  • As China’s economy shifts toward domestic growth and stimulus, its currency will likely strengthen, reducing its reliance on trade surpluses.

• A weaker USD and falling trade deficits in the US.

  • The US will face downward pressure on the dollar as it adjusts its economic policies to address debt and inflationary challenges.

While these trajectories suggest potential cooperation, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. Both sides aim for a win-win outcome, but obstacles and setbacks are inevitable.

Case Study: The Chip Ban

• Costs for the US: The decision to ban chip technology transfers has spurred competition. In the long run, this could lead to the emergence of alternative tech ecosystems, possibly with unique advantages. However, this outcome is uncertain and will take time to materialize.

• Benefits for the US: Currently, Chinese semiconductor capabilities lag behind. The ban gives the US a temporary advantage by slowing China’s progress in advanced tech.

• The Dilemma: The immediate effects of the chip ban are clear, but the long-term implications are not. This gamble reflects the challenge of balancing short-term gains with uncertain future outcomes.

Broader Implications: The Matrix of Whatever

• Both nations face temptations to prioritize immediate benefits (“cheat” the system) over long-term goals. Yet, the structural forces—debt constraints, domestic market potential, and global competition—are too powerful to ignore.

• The challenge lies in navigating these complex dynamics without losing sight of the bigger picture. If managed well, these pressures could align to create opportunities for mutual benefit, even amid competition.